Russia and Ukraine fought in Kursk for more than two months. What’s the situation now？ Will the war of life and death start？

The battle between the Russian and Ukrainian armies in Kursk may usher in a decisive battle for life and death.

According to CCTV news reports, on October 25, local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the Ukrainian army surrounded by Russian troops in Kursk region had lost its command, and many Ukrainian soldiers did not even know that they were surrounded by Russian troops. The day before, Putin said that Russian troops were advancing in all areas of the contact line. About 2000 Ukrainian soldiers were surrounded in Kursk region.

Since August 6, when Ukrainian troops attacked thousands of square kilometers of Russian-controlled land, Russian and Ukrainian armies have been "fighting" in this area for more than two months. What is the current situation? If foreign troops really participate in the war, what impact will it have on the Kursk war situation?

On October 28, 2024, local time, a Russian soldier fired a howitzer at a Ukrainian position in the Russian-Ukrainian border area in Kursk, Russia. This article is a picture of vision china.

What’s the situation now?

On August 6th, Ukraine launched a well-planned cross-border operation in Kursk, Russia. Before this operation, the Ukrainian army relied on UAV reconnaissance and NATO intelligence support to conduct detailed reconnaissance in Kursk region, and made relatively full preparations for military deployment, assembling nearly nine brigades (including advance troops, main forces and reserve forces) and a certain number of mercenaries. After the operation began, first of all, drones and long-range missiles were launched against important institutions such as Russian air bases and command posts in the direction of Kursk State, and large-scale shelling was carried out. Ukrainian advance troops and mercenaries crossed the border and invaded Suja and Kolenevo regions in Kursk State, Russia. This is the first time since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict that Ukrainian regular troops have crossed the border to attack Russian mainland on a large scale.

At first, there were at least nine Ukrainian brigades involved in the cross-border attack in Kursk, Russia, including the 1st Brigade of the Attack Guard, 22nd Mechanical Brigade, 61st Mechanical Brigade, 80th Air Sudden Brigade, 82nd Air Sudden Brigade, 92nd Assault Brigade, 95th Air Sudden Brigade, 115th Mechanical Brigade and 129th National Brigade (note: each brigade participating in the war was not fully staffed, and many brigades only deployed some troops to participate in the battle in Kursk), among which the first brigade.

On October 18th, 2024, in Kursk, Russia, an engineer from the joint demining team of the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations carried out explosive ordnance disposal operations in Belovski.

Due to the insufficient preparation of the Russian army, the troops stationed in Kursk are mainly border guards, and it is difficult for the border guards lacking heavy weapons to resist the heavy troops of the Ukrainian army. In less than 10 days, the Ukrainian army took control of 82 settlements in Kursk, covering an area of 1,150 square kilometers and a depth of 35 kilometers. According to Ukrainian officials, the Ukrainian army finally controlled about 1,200 square kilometers of land and 100 settlements in the state. On the one hand, the Russian army, caught off guard, fought and retreated, organized defense, on the other hand, dispatched troops from many directions to support the war in Kursk State.

After gaining a firm foothold, the Russian army began to counterattack. In Kursk, in addition to border guards, mercenaries and conscripts, the Russian army also invested many elite troops: the 155th Marine Brigade, the 40th Marine Brigade, the 106th Airborne Division, the 72nd motorized infantry division, the 810th Marine Brigade, and even the 22nd Special Forces Brigade directly under the General Staff. With the arrival of reinforcements, the Russian army gradually gained its strength advantage. According to estimates, the Russian army has more than three times the strength advantage in this area, and has received fire support from the Air Force.

Judging from the war situation in Kursk State, from August 6 to September 12, the Russian counterattack was very weak. The main operational purpose was to delay the offensive momentum and troop buildup of the Ukrainian army and prepare for the subsequent counterattack. The United States assessed that Russia needs as many as 20 brigades (about 50,000 people) to completely drive the Ukrainian army out of Kursk; Pat Ryder, a spokesman for the US Department of Defense, said on September 12th that Russia’s counter-offensive actions so far were "insignificant". The reason for this situation is mainly because the Russian army needs to balance the eastern front and the operations in Kursk, and it takes time to assemble and deploy its troops. Therefore, the real counterattack operations are mainly launched in mid-September.

After more than a month’s counter-offensive, the Russian army has regained control of nearly half the territory, which means that the Ukrainian army now controls an area of more than 500 square kilometers. This can also be felt from the official battle report of the Ukrainian army. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces issued a war report on the 24th, saying that as of that afternoon, there were 101 battles in the front-line areas. The situation on the front line is still grim, and the Russian army, taking advantage of its manpower and equipment, keeps attacking Ukrainian positions. In Kharkov, Kupyansk, Pokrovsk, Kurahovo and other regions, the Ukrainian army is taking all measures to stop the Russian attack. In addition, the actions of the Ukrainian army in the Kursk region are still continuing.

On September 20, 2024, local time, Russian soldiers were preparing to launch mortars in Kursk region, Russia.

Battle decisive battle and key variables

For the purpose of attacking the Russian Kursk region, the official statement of Ukraine is to set up a buffer zone, but there is no sign of a large-scale attack by Russian troops in this area, and the statement of the buffer zone is puzzling. Later, Ukraine admitted that the main purpose of Ukraine’s surprise attack on Kursk was to divert the Russian army’s attack on Pokrovsk, a major town in eastern Ukraine, which was an important logistics hub of the Ukrainian army, that is, "encircling Wei to save Zhao". Some analysts said that another purpose is to control the nuclear power plant in Kursk region as "an important bargaining chip" for the follow-up negotiations.

However, the purpose of "encircling Wei to save Zhao" has not been realized now. The Russian army stepped up its offensive on the eastern front, and the battle against Kursk state did not even specify the time node for the Ukrainian army to fight the territory, that is, it did not seek a quick victory. For the Ukrainian side, if we retreat easily now, the negative political and military impact will be unbearable. With the arrival of the Russian counterattack, the Ukrainian army will also dispatch troops to continue to increase its troops in the direction of Kursk, and the two sides have launched a tragic war of attrition and positional warfare in the direction of Kursk. The high-level command of the Ukrainian army has made strategic adjustments and decided to transfer some troops of the 116th Brigade and the 145th and 148th Brigade from the front line of Kulahov to the Kursk region.

According to a report by the Russian news agency on October 20th, the commander of the Ukrainian special forces revealed that the strength of the Ukrainian army in Kursk has increased to 14 brigades, and a large number of foreign mercenaries have joined the battle. This action marks that the Ukrainian army has expanded its strength from 8 brigades to 14 brigades in just 10 days to cope with the Russian counterattack.

Now, in the direction of Kursk, the two villages of Malaya Lokonia and Victorov Ka have become the focus of contention between the two sides. The village of Loknya in Malaya is currently under the control of the Ukrainian army, and the situation in Victorov Card is also very complicated. The two sides fought fiercely, and the reinforcements from Suja of the Ukrainian army further strengthened the defense of these positions, which hindered the Russian offensive in this area.

According to the relevant analysis, the place where the Russian President said that 2,000 Ukrainian troops were surrounded should refer to the villages of Pogrebuki, Marie Jefka, Krugrenko and orlov Ka. There are about three battalions of Ukrainian troops, surrounded on three sides and blocked by aviation, drones and artillery on the other side. This also means that all supply and evacuation routes are controlled by fire, and there are not enough means of transportation to evacuate. If you want to retreat, you must rely mainly on your feet. The situation is very bad for Ukrainian troops.

Now, on the one hand, the Ukrainian army has deployed troops from other fronts to consolidate the defense line and find opportunities to attack. On the other hand, it has used suicide drones to attack the strategic targets behind the Russian army and delay the Russian attack. With the support of the air force, the Russian army stepped up its attack, controlled strategic locations, sought the opportunity of decisive battle in this region, and sought to deploy more troops to Kursk to expand its military superiority.

The most important thing now is whether Russia can get foreign support from tens of thousands of people. Recently, there have been many news reports in this regard. Some news is hard to distinguish between true and false, and some official statements are silent. The truth is unknown. If Russia can really get this support and invest in the Kursk battlefield, it will be an important variable in this battlefield, which is likely to affect the direction of the upcoming decisive battle, which deserves attention.

On October 18, 2024, local time, a man walked through a wall in Kursk, Russia, and a banner was hung on the wall to commemorate Russian soldiers who participated in Russian military operations in Ukraine.